Israel faces two potentially extreme scenarios in Egypt and Jordan, requiring preparation:

1. A Sunni Islamist Ring of Fire– A takeover of one or both countries by Islamist movements. This would revive the threat of a hostile regular army on Israel’s border and destabilize the entire architecture of peace agreements Israel has built since 1979.
2. State Collapse– The disintegration of governance in these countries, turning them into fertile ground for hostile terrorist activities against Israel.

These scenarios cannot be written off given the crises of internal legitimacy experienced by both regimes, signs of economic distress, and the growing strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Palestinian issue serves as a powerful lever to undermine the stability of the peace agreement states. The Muslim Brotherhood effectively exploits the gap between the public stance of the regimes and their covert cooperation with Israel, portraying the regimes as “collaborators” with Israel against Palestinian interests. The issue also acts as an ideological bridge between various Islamist actors, strengthening Turkish influence in the region.

Israel’s current policy toward the neighboring peace-agreement countries suffers from three main shortcomings:

1. A passive, reactive approach to emerging threats.
2. Acceptance of violations of peace agreements and hostile behavior by these countries in the diplomatic arena.
3. Underutilization of existing levers of influence and failure to develop new ones (e.g., aid through international economic institutions, technological cooperation, tourism collaboration).

This paper proposes an integrative strategy based on the DIME framework (Diplomatic, Intelligence, Military, Economic), focusing on three key ideas:

1. Integrating efforts to strengthen the existing moderate regimes with preparations for extreme scenarios.
2. Transitioning from a reactive policy to a proactive policy that shapes regional reality.
3. Creation of levers to advance and reinforce Israeli interests.

The proposed strategy operates across four dimensions:

Political: The strategy proposes coordinating activities in support of stability with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, conditioning U.S. aid to Egypt and Jordan, and assisting Jordan and Egypt regarding the Islamist threat.

Economic: The strategy leverages the asymmetric dependence of these countries to promote their stability, through incentives to improve relations (increasing water supply, upgrading energy infrastructure) while maintaining pressure levers against hostile actions.

Intelligence: It is necessary to develop an early warning and detection system for signs indicating extreme scenarios. Israel will cooperate with Jordan and Egypt against Islamist networks, primarily through shared assets.

Military: Comprehensive operational plans must be prepared for both extreme scenarios, with emphasis on ensuring control over strategic areas, defense systems for shared infrastructure, and effective enforcement of demilitarization measures.

This strategy will allow Israel to better address complex regional challenges, maintain the stability of the peace agreement countries, and build resilience mechanisms for extreme scenarios.