The United States remains the strongest military and economic power globally, but its predominant status is being challenged across multiple arenas, and it is neither able nor willing to manage the international system on its own. Powers such as China and Russia contest key elements of the current order, while rising powers like India seek to define their place within it. The international system is becoming increasingly competitive and fragmented.
While populations in developed countries are aging and shrinking, regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia are experiencing rapid population growth. Economies outside the Atlantic basin are expanding at a fast pace and benefiting from the relocation of manufacturing capabilities to their territories, while Atlantic economies increasingly shift toward financial and service sectors. Knowledge and technological capabilities are diffusing from the Atlantic basin to the rest of the world, alongside a critical dependence of Western value chains on advanced technological products from non-Western countries.
China seeks to position itself as a global center and to reshape the American-led international order to suit its interests, though it remains unclear whether it can challenge U.S. hegemony beyond East Asia. Challenges to American dominance also come from Russia and Iran, both of which aim to strengthen their regional and global standing. The United States has been and remains the world’s most powerful military force, by a wide margin over any rival. However, Washington struggles to forge a new consensus around a coherent strategy for the international system. European powers find it difficult to translate their economic strength into geopolitical power, while the continent undergoes significant demographic and social changes, marked by population aging and Muslim immigration that threatens the character of European societies.
In the Middle East, we are currently witnessing a weakening of the Shiite Islamist camp as a result of the damage to Iran and its proxy forces by Israel during the Iron Swords War. In the resulting vacuum, Sunni Islamist actors, including Turkey, Qatar, and the new regime in Syria, have emerged strengthened, while the traditional Gulf-Arab monarchies compete for leadership and seek to maximize their influence in the emerging order. The coming years are likely to feature the continuation of this contest, alongside Iranian efforts to rebuild its power and the ongoing, quieter struggle within the monarchist states against Islamist currents within their own societies.
A global arms race is underway, with particular emphasis on autonomous weapons systems, cyber capabilities, missiles, and artificial intelligence, alongside substantial investment in relevant industrial production capacity. States are increasingly taking steps to enhance their strategic autonomy. This competition also drives the development of new infrastructure linking major powers to global markets, such as competing initiatives in the Middle East, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC).
Artificial intelligence is expected to transform the economy, society, culture, and politics. Alongside it, new breakthroughs in robotics, biotechnology, and industry are driving growing demand for advanced semiconductors and energy infrastructure. The power that succeeds in deploying reliable artificial intelligence on the battlefield and in fully harnessing its potential through effective force development will gain a significant military advantage.
In Western societies, a deep political polarization has emerged between socialist-progressive, anti-traditional forces and national-conservative, traditionalist forces. This polarization complicates consensus-building on core issues and leads to inconsistent policymaking, particularly in the United States. Antisemitism is on the rise; however, there are also many in the West who recognize that anti-Israel and antisemitic actors also oppose Western civilization itself and view Israel as a model of a nation-state that preserves its identity and bravely defends its existence.
For Israel—a small, technologically advanced state in a strategic location—these trends present both threats and opportunities. Israel will need to increase its strategic value to the United States to ensure that the alliance remains resilient across changes in U.S. administrations. At the same time, scenarios may arise in which the U.S. must concentrate its resources on a limited number of theaters, making it essential for Israel to strengthen its independence in producing critical weaponry. The American need for capable allies, coupled with the desire to limit its direct military commitments, presents an opportunity to transform the Israel–U.S. relationship toward a more balanced, mutually supportive partnership.
The technological shift will strengthen Israel’s standing as a leading innovation nation. Israeli knowledge and experience in fields such as cyber, air defense, and artificial intelligence can serve as valuable assets in the global technology race. Israel should also leverage this expertise and these developments to forge new alliances. Its geographic location places it in a favorable position, allowing it to become a regional hub for energy and transportation. The arms race further increases the export potential of Israeli weapons technologies.
